My Two Cents on the Chrome OS
Comments OffAlthough I don’t usually give in to peer pressure (if you forget high school…), this tasty morsel is just too good to pass up. The techie world is ablaze with hype over Google’s announcement yesterday that they will be releasing an operating system, Chrome OS, based on their Chrome browser with a tentative release date for late 2010. I’ve read quite a few blog postings on this the last couple days and I can honestly say that fanboys are out in full force. I’ll link to some of these at the end of the article, as I’ll be pulling some information from them. The biggest questions are: will this have an impact on Microsoft? If so, how big of an impact will it be? Are Google’s claims for a fast, safe operating system likely to be true? My answers are maybe, small, and that depends. I’m going to break down these questions, along with some other Chrome OS topics, as unbiased as I can. And before I start, let me add this disclaimer: I do not claim to be a professional of any kind. I’m simply a soon-to-be-graduated Information Systems major at a major US university who loves to keep an ear to the ground of technology. I love seeing what’s over the horizon and telling people what I think about it. Let’s get started.
Google started as an online search & advertising compnay. That is their niche. They make approximately 97% of their revenue in that area and dominate challengers such as Yahoo & Bing (although Bing is actually becoming a threat) and cast old search engines such as Ask Jeeves into the abyss like Darth Maul. On top of that, they started offering some simple online services such as GMail, which is widely used. Google keeps expanding their service base and now totes office productivity software and mobile phone operating systems which have had minimal impact on the market so far. However, the open source web-based David has challenged Goliath with a full desktop operating system. My Goliath analogy isn’t good enough, however… Microsoft is not the Goliath of non-Mac OSs, it’s the Great White Shark, the Tyrannasaurus Rex, the leviathan of the non-Mac OS. (I say non-Mac because Windows is not a competitor in the Mac world – Mac OS X effectively holds a monopoly on the hardware. Even Macs that have Windows have Mac OS on them. Not fair Apple, not fair. But I digress.)
What Google is doing with Chrome OS is honorable. They realize that people are using the internet more and more. People don’t want to worry about updates, upkeep, or security. They want things to work fast and efficiently. Hopefully Google can deliver with a product that can help in all of these areas. I sincerely hope they do. If they can then it is good for everyone. True competition assures the best products and drives prices down. If I wanted Google to fail I would be an idiot. However, there are some problems with Google’s vision. Here is a short list of what I see:
1. Release date: Late 2010. Are you serious? I know it’s not exactly easy to write code, test, debug, and release an operating system, but this date is way too far away. It’s not even late 2009 yet. How much will technology change from now until then? Google better be looking into a crystal ball. Their timing in regard to other netbook OSs is not very advantageous either. Microsoft is releasing Windows 7 later this month to manufacturers, and the operating system will be officially in the wild on October 22nd. That is a whole year ahead of Google’s anticipated release date, and Windows 7 is so highly touted as a fast, light, stable OS that netbook makers are dumping Windows XP and Linux Ubuntu in favor of Windows 7-only systems. By the time Chrome OS is released Windows 7 will already be on Service Pack 1 and Windows 8 will already be in development. In order for this to be a fair fight Google should have developed this last year instead of giving Microsoft a one-year head start.
2. The target market: Netbooks. Okay. Finally my opinion on netbooks comes out. I will not deny that they have at sometimes appeared attractive to me. Techies like small gadgets. I wanted one… until I looked at the specs. Netbooks are tiny, underpowered (also known as handicapped) laptop computers. One of my professors makes fun of kids in class if they pull out a netbook. The only reason manufacturers are pushing them so hard is because we are in a recession and they have massive margins on plastic one-core laptops with no optical drives. What confuses me is that they are really not that much smaller than other laptop computers. Popular laptop models are around 13 inches while netbooks are around 8. There may only be 1 pound in weight between these. I sat next to a student in one of my classes who had a netbook. For the record, I have a 15” VAIO. Our backpacks were the same size (you would think he would have his netbook in his pocket or something). I imagine there was a 3-4 pound difference between our computers. But as I was working on my glorious full-sized keyboard with my huge screen, multitasking between the internet, word processing, and image editing, my counterpart was struggling trying to type notes onto his Will Ferrell-sized computer (remember the SNL sketch?). I will gladly lug my bag of bricks around to have more flexibility. I’ll also mention that at my university, which has well over 30,000 students that I assume are all laptop-equipped, I haven’t seen more than a dozen netbooks since their inception. No matter what people say, not everyone is buying a netbook. There are also some statistics on netbooks in one of the blogs I read that mentioned that regular PCs had a 28% decrease in sales over a certain period while netbooks saw a 68% increase. What does this mean? That instead of selling 10,000,000 PCs last year, maybe they only sold 7,500,000. Netbook sales went up from 100,000 to 168,000 though! (These are fake figures inserted for sarcastic comedic value) And one more nugget: Google already has some vendors lined up for Chrome OS. Really smart Acer, Adobe, ASUS, Freescale, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Toshiba. Go with the OS you have never seen and hasn’t even been developed yet. If Google wanted to make waves with an OS, netbooks are the wrong target market. While it fits their goal (the cloud), it isn’t likely to make an impact.
3. Chrome OS: Fast and secure! Google should make sure they are right before they make claims about speed and security. True, Chrome is fast… but it relies on operating system resource management and hardware performance. Google will have to build a software system ground up that can take advantage of hardware capability and translate that into web app speed. I don’t doubt that they can do it, but they’ve never done it before. And here is the back-breaker on the speed of Chrome OS: even if the OS is the fastest ever, because it is web-centered, it is ALL dependent on connection speed. Also, although it is getting close, the internet is not always available. And when I say available, I mean decent speed. Ever used a 3G connection on a full-blown computer? I don’t know about you, but when I log onto a laptop I expect a certain amount of speed on the internet. When I don’t get it, I get mad. Even pulling mobile-phone designed web pages on a 3G network on an iPhone can be extremely frustrating. Now imagine your entire Windows operating system depending on that connection for email, word processing, system utilities, etc. Pulling your hair out yet? Don’t worry, as long as you are on a Wi-Fi network you will be okay. Hopefully. Another problem is Google’s claims of security on Chrome OS. They are entirely speaking too soon. If Chrome makes any impact on the OS wars at all, hackers will want the trophy of breaking it. I’m sure some 16 year-old in Kazakhstan with a case of Mountain Dew Game Fuel will find some kind of vulnerability in the first few months of Chrome OS’s release. Browsers are historically the most vulnerable part of an operating system, and Google’s programmers are not immune to making mistakes. There will be zero-day vulnerabilities and OS patches, just like any other browser or operating system. “(People) don’t want to… have to worry about constant software updates.” Well said Google. Good luck.
4. Google’s lack of market penetration is a problem. GMail was a hit. I like Google Street View too. Other than that, Google hasn’t really done a great job at getting people to use their products. From what I’ve seen, Google Apps is mainly used by college student group projects where the students have Macs and PCs, have to work on the same document at the same time, and don’t want to bother with conversion of files. They just barely took the “beta” label off of it, and they’re not likely to take over a huge share of the market anytime soon. Android is starting to appear on mobile phones, but almost every other platform has more users, including iPhone OS, Windows Mobile, WebOS on the new Palm Pre, Symbian for Nokia phones, and Blackberry OS. Android is good in that it’s open-source and adaptable, but it just hasn’t been groundbreaking. More phones are being released with Android this year, so stay tuned to that story. The bottom line is that Google needs to learn how to finish. They are brilliant at coming up with innovative products and getting them to beta, but it seems to me that they fail after that. Products that stay in beta for ages, little or no advertising of new products, and slow adoption lead to great products going unnoticed. Even the Chrome browser, which has proven to be the fastest in correctly loading webpages and killing others in JavaScript speed tests, is 4th in the browser race. Fourth. Behind three others. Three slower browsers. One of which is the ridiculed Internet Explorer that fails Acid tests. If that is not a product failure then I don’t know what the term means. IE is sold through Windows, FireFox has been around long enough that it sells itself, and Apple ads and media hype sell Safari. DO SOMETHING GOOGLE! There is also some criticism from one of the linked articles that Google uses their most brilliant programmers and project managers to start up and launch a product, and then they move on to the next “it” thing. If they expect to make Chrome OS a winner they must start from the beginning with their best staff until it has beaten every other netbook OS out there. Another HUGE problem here is familiarity. Even if Chrome OS is better than Windows 7, how many people will go with the unfamiliar interface?
Now let me state it again: I have nothing against Google. I have a GMail account, I use Google search occasionally (Bing is my default), Google Maps helps me from getting lost, and I use Google Docs at school. I love competition; it’s in everyone’s best interests. But some of Google’s decisions are interesting to say the least. What do you think? Should a supposedly groundbreaking OS be released on a type of machine that the minority has in their possession? Should it be Linux, which for years has ridden in the backseat as the third wheel while Windows drives around the prom queen? Should they make claims of speed and security before any code has been written, in contrast to Apple and Microsoft’s moves of saying nothing but “We might be working on something,” and then making a press release when they have something to show? Is Google going to end their losing streak with Chrome OS and finally bring their application bundle into the forefront? Will Batman and Robin finally defeat the Penguin and his cronies? So far everything is just speculation, but hopefully we will see a shred of something before the spring.
As promised, here is some good reading on Chrome OS:
Official Google Blog Entry
Will Google’s OS Make the Desktop Safe?
Google Chrome OS Will Reshape Desktop Landscape
Google: The World’s Most Successful Failure?
Google Announces Chrome OS Tech Partners
